So back blogging and sharing some stories.
Tonight i was on the footie trading. I love trading football, specially if a team goes out and leads with a couple of goals in the half time.
This will make the teams odds shorten, and its always funnier to trade the small odds than the bigger ones.
The program was packed! So many qual. games going on. So i did what i always do: Opened flashscore, and wait for the late goals before half time, then take the positions if they occur.
And there was one match tonight which was absolutely perfect for this. Rosenborg was up against FC Ordabasy from Kazhakstan.
Rosenborg went of, being huge favourites. Much bigger than i would ever make them. But why is that? Because Rosenborg is just that much better, or because people dont know anything about FC Ordabasy?
I knew that Rosenborg wasnt playing with their best team, and that Ordabasy would be playing with their best 11 from the start. The game started, and Rosenborg quickly came on 1-0. Just before halftime, they scored to 2-0 on penalty.
A perfect development in the match! I jumped on, laying at 1.03. But quickly noticed that this was to high, so i changed quickly and layed 1.02, thinking that 1.01 was way to low at this point, as there were 45 minutes left to be played.
One goal from Ordabasy could change everything. 2-0 is the worst lead as they say. To my surprise, i got matched in a low liquidity game.
I got matched around 50.000 kr, and some guy out there, kept on backing 1.02 with 15.000 kr a stake. I was thinking to myself, something is wrong here. And he just kept on backing. I must admit, even today, thousands of markets later in my Betfair career, the markets still surprises me once in a while.
So he kept on backing at 1.02. I again had to change gameplan, and decided to get rid of my good position, and get out in 0.
I decided to back the 50.000 at 1.02 and get out. BUT, he came in before me, leaving a block in front of me where i couldnt get out.
I was way behind in the que, left thinking, should i take the loss in 1.01 or wait and see how the market would react? A huge dilemma. I am not that good at NOT keeping the discipline, but this time i thought to myself, even if Rosenborg score to 3-0, i should be able to get out in that 1.01 price, giving me a loss of 500 kr.
So i actually went in-play, risking 1000 kr. (Well actually 500 because i should be able to get out at 1.01 if Rosenborg scored again.)
Strange market behaviour and me getting stuck, left me going in play, for the first time in ages. (At least this way)
Not much happend in the game. People got stuck, panicking to get out, pushing the price to 1.01 with 35 minutes left of the game.
And here i really started thinking: Hmmm! What just happened.
My gameplan went wrong, but i knew i was sitting with money in a position that was with huge value. So backup plan lost, and i was just sitting and hoping that something would happen in the game.
75 minute: Ordabasy GOAL!
I thought to myself, what now, how would people backing the price to low, react. After the goal, the price was one big mess. Jumping around 3-4 ticks at a time, i was getting out slowly with my money, for a profit. I could just see, that somebody were in deep trouble. That one goal changed everything.
People not offering prices, people stuck, and i was sitting with a great position. I greened out so i had 2000 kr on Rosenborg, and left around 1500 extra on X-2. Started trading the big gaps that occured now that i had some money greened out. What a great position i was in. With the right stakes, it was only win-win from here.
93 minute: Ordabasy GOAL!
Score was 2-2, i greened out, just over 3700 kr richer, and somebody learned a lesson! I cant say i am happy that somebody lost huge money, but on the other hand, i must admit that people learn a lesson once in a while.
This was not about me being great. This was all about luck turning my way when i needed it, but a lesson can be learned.
If you find value, keep it. If something has worked for you in years, you are right, and not the other person backing against you.
Have confidence in the market.
Most of all, have confidence in that what you are doing, is it the right way to do it, then luck or karma will go your way by time.
1.01 was not value when the price should be 1.03 in my world. At least. I cant say i enjoyed leaving this nights trading to lady luck, but lady luck learned somebody a lesson. Including me: Get out of the market if it doesnt feel right.
Lesson learned the sweet way.
//Mike
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