So many things to write about on this crazy Saturday.
From markets collapsing to fixed matches to a crazy day in plus.
To begin with, there was a more or less fixed match today between Banants Yerevan and FC Ulisses. As you can see on the picture below, the odds on Banants got smashed down from odds 1.6 to 1.17. Banants scored the first goal, but as it usually is in fixed matches, they try to cover it up by not winning to big or letting the other team score a goal or two. Just so it looks normal. I have tried this so many times before, so after Banants scored to 1-0, the odds hit 1.05 where you can see that 216.000dkk got matched. I knew that only two things could happen from here.
1: Ulisses would score a quick goal to even the game up.
2: Banants would score one more.
The game ending 1-0 in a possibly fixed match, is an unlikely scenario. The reason is that it is too risky to play a whole fixed match with only a 1-0 lead. Based on how the match turned around after the first goal, I noticed that Ulisses had the ball more and more, getting corners, going in dangerous attacks etc. So I decided that all this just confirmed that Ulisses actually might get the next goal before the break and then get beaten. So I decided to lay Banants at odds 1.05 for a great amount of money. The reason is that Ulisses had the momentum and I knew I would get at least 35 ticks if they scored compared to losing 3-5 ticks if Banants scored goal number 2. So it was actually a pretty easy lay.
And just as expected, Ulisses gets goal number 2 as you can see on the graph, and I trade out for a profit of 4800dkk. And on to the next one.
Oh yes, they got smashed in the end, losing 5-1.
What happened in this next match though is something that I haven't seen before. At least not in this way. The correct score market in the game between Real Madrid – Barcelona, more or less collapsed. After the score was 0-1 to Barcelona, the 0-0 score got traded all the way down to odds 30. Look at the bottom graph in the 0-0 score column. It happened over and over again. Someone kept backing the 0-0 score that it would happen, even after Barcelona already scored the first goal. I know, this isn't possible. Exactly. That wasn't even possible and yet we were trading the 0-0 correct score as if you could take back the Barcelona goal. The same thing happened right after Barcelona scored to 0-2. As you can see the result 0-1 got traded big time! I managed to trade both of them, again and again, netting a profit of just around 7.000dkk. Check the second picture.
I don't know if this was caused by someone having fat fingers or a bot getting it wrong, again and again, but someones account got emptied a bit on this match. And if it is a bot who was emptying it, then someone out there came home to an unpleasant surprise.
My day ended in just around 15.500dkk. Here is the last 20 markets I traded for tonight. Happy Saturday!
