Yesterday Bhutan played Qatar. The game ended 0-3 to Qatar and this blog post is about all you people who are betting on low odds to get some value. Before I begin explaining, I have to make a quick comment on betting on these low odds: It is stupid.
Check graph above. Before the match, and even 20 minutes in the match, people were betting huge money on 1.06-1.11 that Qatar would score 4 goals or more. The result at this point was 0-0.
I couldn't believe it. I layed it big time (still calculated risk), and also ended up trading out with a profit of just around 950kr as you can see. But there are just so many things wrong in backing someone to score 4+ goals at this stage. I will tell you why.
But first of all, yes Qatar was expected to win and yes, Qatar were HUGE favorites to say the least and yes, Bhutan is not an amazing team and yes, it was a qualification match and Qatar had to win this game so yes, in the end, Qatar would probably end up winning.
BUT and a huge BUT. And here comes all the wrong parts. You have a team as Bhutan, whose only goal in this match is to defend. They would be more than satisfied with 0-0. They played 4-5-1 with a huge focus on the defensive part. They are playing at home. The crowd is with them and they are playing on artificial grass. If you have ever played soccer on artificial grass, you know that the difference is huge. Everything from sprinting to the speed of the ball, to sliding tackles. Everything is different. Bhutan is taking on a giant in their own eyes, the motivation for this game for the Bhutan players would be huge, while the motivation for the Qatar players, as huge favorites wouldn't be that great. Because if you are not challenged enough and you have everything to lose, the motivation is not always the same. It will be, because they know that they have to win, but only until the match is “safe”, meaning they get a lead of about 2 goals. Which would be safe in this situation.
So you have a team, where the personal motivation from player to player is huge, all the way through the match, meeting a team who is just expected to win and would be satisfied just pulling a safe game. If you are leading 2-0 as a huge favorite, why would you go and spend loads and loads of energy winning 3,4,5-0? Isn't that stupid? You are in a position where you can have an “easy” match from which you will not use more than 2-3 days to recover. This is how players stay on top for a whole season – knowing when to take their breaks.
So what is the most likely scenario after Qatar scores the first two goals? That they would relax and save energy for the other matches ahead of course. The intensity of their performance will drop significantly after the first 2 goals are scored. But what would happen with Bhutan's intensity? They will of course try to get that 1 goal that could get them back in the match. Their intensity and focus would and should be even greater at this point.
So you have a team, whose intensity is high, all the way through the match (more or less) against a team who you know will most likely end up taking it at cruise control at some point in the match, and that team is playing away on artificial grass and yet because of all this, you are betting huge money at odds 1.06-1.11 that this team will score 4 goals or more?
I don't care if they won 10-0, the value is simply not there and I will always lay against these kinds of situation.
Message to you who are betting on these odds:
I don't know. I would love to hear about how you found value in these odds. I would also love to sit and have a cup of coffee with you, at your place. Not to hear about your explanation on why you did it, because the only realistic explanation would be that you were drunk or slightly stupid, but to ask if I can use your toilet to see if you are using money as toilet paper. Surely you do.
I will write an article about this psychological view on it soon.
