Having Betfair as a full time job means that you will be a witness to some crazy stuff in sports. Odds 1000 winning, horses falling, odds 1.01 being beaten again and again and people losing millions. But one thing that keeps on happening that I personally find very interesting is when huge market support ends up being winning bets.
To those of you that are new to betting and don't know what market support is, then look at the graphs below.
Market support is simple. It means that a team, a player, horse or whatever else competes on the day, gets support. People bet huge amounts of money that that player, team and so on, will win. This leaves us with graphs looking like the ones above.
To the left is the graph of the Bolivia – Venezuela world cup qualification match that ended 4-2 to Bolivia. As you can see, the graph of Bolivia fell from around odds 2.25 to 1.80 pre-match and in-play. I watched the game. Bolivia was dominating from the first minute. Like if someone knew that this would happen. This screenshot was taken when the result was 3-1. Even though Venezuela got a goal more, the victory was never really in doubt and they got a comfortable win out of it.
On the right graph is an u21 match between Czech Republic and Belgium. Czech Republic ended up winning 1-0. In this example Czech Republic didn't get much support before the match, but ended up getting huge support in-play and ended up being almost favorites before they scored the first and only goal in the match.
In the near future I will be picking up these matches and blogging about my view on them as a daily tip for all of you who follows. Sometimes the market just knows more than the statistics tells us. This is not a bulletproof strategy nor does it mean that every team supported will end up winning, I have seen some extreme examples of the opposite, but the market usually tells us that the team supported, will most likely end up playing a better match than the other team. And that is definitely something you can use when you bet.
